Curse

Joe L. · Mar 25, 2008, 10:48 PM // 22:48

I am aware that there are many facts and theories regarding drops, droprates, anti-farm code etc. I would like to explain what happens to my monk and get some input from other members of the community.

I believe that the drops for my monk character are "broken" Let me explain: I have solo-farmed just about everything that a monk can, and in the process, have made a fortune. Though as time goes on, I have suspected that the drops of "golds", has gotten rather lackluster. Now, after the last month or so, I'm almost sure that there is something no longer random about them.

I have done a bunch of glacial stone farming. Dual monk style. My brother plays the other monk, and he does virutally zero farming. Every time we go, his rare drops outnumber mine about 3-1.(I have not provided screens, since with nearly 400 stones farmed the amount of screens would be massive.) I also do a bit of Slavers Exile. In my last full run, with Duncan HM, I got 1 diamond, 5 onyx, opened 8 chests all purple, and the prior Duncan HM I earned 2 onyx, aside from the usual diamond and armor remnant.

I enjoy normal gold drop success if I ursan with my ranger, or Tank with my warrior, both of which rarely ever farm. All patterns lead me to believe that something is wrong with the way things drop for my monk.

I realize many will think this is just bad luck, but it's been going on for so long, and the fact that it's better on other characters makes me wonder if A'net penalizes the hardcore farmer, based on the fact that if you go solo only, you never really realize that your drops are horrible, when if you go with dual, or do full party dungeons, you see just about everyone else hauling the golds, while you get zilch.

masta_yoda · Mar 25, 2008, 10:51 PM // 22:51

i think its just badluck , all the locked chests i open in eotn are purps for me

Molock · Mar 25, 2008, 10:59 PM // 22:59

Badluck. Until recently I had the exact same thing happening for all my characters.. then I got an Amestyth Aegis to make things better

Lady Lozza · Mar 25, 2008, 11:01 PM // 23:01

Joe,
I go through bad drop days, weeks, and even months on certain characters. There are times when I don't even manage to get blues unless I open chests (and get purples

). To be honest unless it keeps up for 6+ months I'd say it is just luck.

Gun Pierson · Mar 25, 2008, 11:04 PM // 23:04

Welcome to the fascinating world of the solo farmer and Anet's view on it. Study lootscaling. See what's on the LS list and try other ways of farming. Playing with a friend (and a hero) farming through vast unrepeating areas of the game for example. Or go farm gems (ursan way) in DoA, which is another facet of farming Anet rewards.

Anet's view on farming: (long quote in middle of the page)
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...268601&page=44

HawkofStorms · Mar 25, 2008, 11:08 PM // 23:08

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance

Until you can understand the math in that page, please don't post this stuff.
And when you do understand the math, you'll realize you don't need to post this stuff.

[Morkai] · Mar 25, 2008, 11:08 PM // 23:08

Loot scaling does not affect Core areas (FoW/UW) or Gold drops.

It's just bad luck i'm afraid, nothing you can do.

crazybanshee · Mar 25, 2008, 11:37 PM // 23:37

Yeah it annoys me too. I basically only play 1 character, and on the last 3 slavers full runs EVERY SINGLE CHEST for me was a grape (the only golds I got the entire time came from forge's end chest and duncan end chest) while the other players opened most of the chests for golds. Annoying, yes. I figured it has something to do with either the amount of time I play, or the higher rank in treasure hunter that makes me get purples.

Zaiden · Mar 25, 2008, 11:54 PM // 23:54

There's one thing you need to know. Do not overfarm. The drops DO gets rarer if you overfarm an area.

xPIMPx · Mar 26, 2008, 12:38 AM // 00:38

I stealing your drops sorry

**cosyfiep** · Mar 26, 2008, 12:44 AM // 00:44

That is when I go and play a different character and let the one with the bad drops have a few days off (and hope that that fixes the problem)....though I have a female monk that always gets bad drops (even the free chests in nf on the FIRST trip were grapes for her)....so she just doesnt play that often (until her 'luck' improves).....
take a few days off that character or do something other than farming---try a mission or something like that and see if that changes your luck....and

good luck ?

Splitisoda · Mar 26, 2008, 01:07 AM // 01:07

At least you got an fortune, I'm outside the Remains of Saljhala trying to see if theres any spare change in the wurms when past people got eaten.

Joe L. · Mar 26, 2008, 02:21 AM // 02:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by HawkofStorms

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance

Until you can understand the math in that page, please don't post this stuff.
And when you do understand the math, you'll realize you don't need to post this stuff.

To have true variance, then the pattern I am seeing should be ever-present, not progressively worse. To be progressively worse, means some of the base criteria for what does or not drop must be changing, therefore, not random. I guess that's the beauty of "worsening drops" (if) Anet actually did administer some code, is it's impossible to prove.

To address an issue I overlooked and has been brought up, Lately, in the past 5-7 months, I have actually not done much solo-farming at all. Not even an hour a week, so if anything, I would assume my drops would have gotten, if nothing else, a bit better, not the opposite.

Bluefeather · Mar 26, 2008, 03:23 AM // 03:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by HawkofStorms

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance

Until you can understand the math in that page, please don't post this stuff.
And when you do understand the math, you'll realize you don't need to post this stuff.

WT....are you saying that if i don't understand math i'll never get a gold drop?

j/k

But i'm not impressed with the link.

It will be better if you can translate the link in english. Are you saying that if I have the same exact group, going to the exact place at exact same time, I will get the exact same drop?

Please help me coz i didn't know that I need to understand math to understand randomness of loots.

Thanks.

R.Shayne · Mar 26, 2008, 03:39 AM // 03:39

It's a computer luck does not exist, more of a complex logarithm that tries to give the illusion of a random number.

Have you tried farming the same spot in a row - not just glacier stone farming since you only kill sixty (Hard Mode). Have your brother vanquish Mirror of Lyss (600 / Smite) with you and once you completed do it again. Each run should take 45 minutes for a total of 90 minutes.

I would be very curious to see the results of the runs. Not saying I fully understand the game mechanics but it appears that when the mission loads drops are assigned then, not during game play. What I am getting at is that you may just be killing the wrong creatures since you are not completing the map.

Another question may be look at the number of glacial stones, is your brother getting more of them on an average then you?

MirkoTeran · Mar 26, 2008, 06:36 AM // 06:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluefeather

i didn't know that I need to understand math to understand randomness of loots.

Well, you do. And if you and more people would there wouldn't be a thread about this every second day.

Bluefeather · Mar 26, 2008, 06:46 AM // 06:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by MirkoTeran

Well, you do. And if you and more people would there wouldn't be a thread about this every second day.

LOL so u really understand that wiki link? And the reason why you got good drops is because you are good at math?

that's BS.

LOL Good Math Skill = Good Drops; Bad Math Skill = Bad Drops

Bwahahahaha this is the funniest joke i heard in years.

Akolo · Mar 26, 2008, 07:48 AM // 07:48

thats not what hes saying i didnt read the link (cba with math in the morning) but even i understand that he says stop complaining if you dont know how it works... its RANDOM, not antifarm, not some strange "you-have-been-playing-this-char-too-much-so-we-remove-your-drops". RANDOM :P

strcpy · Mar 26, 2008, 08:58 AM // 08:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluefeather

LOL so u really understand that wiki link?

Considering that I had quite a number of graduate courses in mathematics (I'm a computer scientist), yes that is pretty simple stuff. You know, someone somewhere had to understand that to write it and it isn't even written to a standard a higher level undergrad college course would accept, let alone someone who actually works with that type of math at a professional level.

Just because you can't follow some math doesn't mean everyone else on the planet also can't do it. The point being that until you even have that basic a level of understanding of what is going on you do not have the background to make an educated assertion about the issue and are simply guessing. Same is true of I look at an airframe and tell a aeronautical engineer his plane will not fly - what the heck do I know about designing and airframe?

Quote:

And the reason why you got good drops is because you are good at math?

No, but then since you obviously don't understand what is going on I can see how you wold think so. Better if you point out that PRNG's are not truly random but are deterministic so that variance doesn't count. While you still obviously don't understand the math behind them and are nearly 100% wrong you at least have a very basic understanding of some of the principles involved and you aren't fully 100% incorrect (to note decent PRNG's pass all of these statistical tests and even poor ones do not fail in the way you, and others, are saying they do).

Of course, I don't particularly expect lack of knowledge to stop people from telling mathematicians how mathematics work - it never has in the past. I'm sure your lack of understanding gives special insight on the matter at hand and you could easily tell that 3 dimensional RANDU sequences fall into 15 2 dimensional planes by noting that your gold drops aren't as good as you expect.

MirkoTeran · Mar 26, 2008, 09:32 AM // 09:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluefeather

LOL so u really understand that wiki link?

Actually, I do. I'm a CS graduate so we did have a bit of math.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluefeather

And the reason why you got good drops is because you are good at math?

No, but if you were better at it you would know what you are getting bad drops.

I could write a bit more but strcpy explained it quite well.